Last updated: • Not financial advice
Rate Drivers Heading into 2026
- Policy rates and term premia; see Fed transmission.
- Credit spreads and lender appetite; collateral liquidity by model.
- Insurance and maintenance cost trends feeding cash‑flow needs.
Modeled Scenarios
- Base: Gradual easing in late 2026; fixed improves modestly, variable stable.
- High: Sticky inflation; slower easing; variable tracks higher for longer.
- Low: Faster disinflation; fixed opportunities for refinance widen.
Buyer Playbook
- Short horizon or sale plan: price variable vs fixed with a conservative balloon.
- Long horizon: weigh fixed certainty vs optional caps; maintain reserves.
- Refi readiness: keep documentation and insurance training current; see refinance guide.
How to Model 2026 in the Calculator
- Create Base/High/Low APR cases and export CSVs from the calculator.
- Compare total interest, payment volatility, and balloon feasibility.
- Stress payment cadence (monthly/quarterly) and term adjustments.
External: FRED · NY Fed SOFR · NBAA